Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Art Thiel's Howard Lincoln Interview

I have been digesting all that last weekend meant to me as a baseball fan, which I will post about at some point along with my thoughts about a new manager and the direction the organization should take with overhauling this team. In the meantime, I can't resist reacting to Art Thiel's interview with Howard Lincoln in the P-I today. I'm just going to throw out the many jaw-dropping quotes (somewhat edited here) and react:

"Q: If you were a major shareholder of a company whose main rival for three years put out a better product at half the price, do you think the CEO of that company might be vulnerable?

"A: I certainly think that CEO would be subject to legitimate criticism. . . . I'm cognizant that our fans -- and I'm one -- are very, very disappointed with what happened in 2004 and, while we had winning records in 2002 and 2003, we didn't go to the playoffs. [However,] I'd . . . point out that in the five years we've been doing this we've been to the American League Championship Series twice and we've had four years of good baseball. I think overall it's fair to say we've brought great joy to the community and we've turned an entire region to Mariner baseball.

". . . While I know our fans are upset now, I venture to say that they would agree to the following: When I take my 2-year-old grandson to the park when he's 10, . . . the last thing on my mind will be the win-loss record of the 2004 season. Instead, I will be saying to him, 'This is the field where Edgar Martinez played, and I was here for his last game. This is the field where Ichiro Suzuki established the new single-season hit record. I was there. Baseball is more than wins and losses. It's the joy of coming to Safeco Field and watching extraordinary performances by world-class athletes. . . . I would hope that 2004 would be viewed as an aberration (that no one) in the organization felt was acceptable."
There is a lot that bothers me about both the tone and content of Lincoln's response to this question.

First, it is telling that it is so obvious that Lincoln views major league baseball as a business like any other that Thiel feels the need to phrase the question this way. While it may be a business, it is certainly unlike any other, given both its legally-sanctioned monopoly status and the reality that nearly every franchise is highly subsidized with public dollars. But, even accepting the construct of the question and Lincoln's thinking, does anybody think that Lincoln -- a former president of a publicly-traded company in a highly-competitive field -- is being straight with us here? You regularly get your butt beat by a lesser-capitalized competitor and all the CEO should expect from shareholders is "legitimate criticism"? Please. Any CEO of a company like that knows his head is on the block, and rightfully so.

We are the "shareholders" of this operation, folks, because we are citizens of the country whose government has legitimized the monopoly that is major league baseball, and of the city, county, and state that (through the leverage provided by that monopoly status) was squeezed out of some $350 million provided to this operation -- not to mention nearly free rent for and free reign over a public asset. We have the right to expect some public accountabilty from the Mariners for the way they have mismanaged their product. And I'm not just talking about "legitimate criticism" here.

Some may say that the time is not right for a clean sweep, one season of abject failure after consecutive 93-win seasons -- and I might be convinced to allow this management group one more season to make good progress toward righting the Good Ship Mariner. However, let's not kid ourselves: this is not one season of failure, but the culmination of three years of failing to address growing and foreseable problems that led to this year. If there isn't significant progress next season, everyone from Lincoln to Bavasi to the scouting staff has to understand that calls for their heads and not just "criticism" will be "legitimate."

Second, I am astounded that Howard Lincoln continues to offer up "we've been fun and we've been contenders" as if that is really enough.

Memo to Howard Lincoln: It is nice to have a beautiful ballpark and to contend -- we are certainly grateful for the myriad ways our experience as Mariners fans has improved under the watch of the ownership group you head. We all agree that this is a compelling and entertaining game that not even strikes, mismanagement, or Bud Selig can ruin. But, the object of all this is not to "contend" or to be satisfied with coming up a series short or with 90-win seasons that don't go anywhere, or even to witness terrific individual achievements. The object of this game is to win. While we all must recognize and reconcile ourselves to the reality that only one team can win, the most difficult part of being a Mariners fan under Howard Lincoln's stewardship is not failing to win but management's consistent willingness to accept less than winning and call it "success" -- and then look to all of us for applause rather than criticism.

End rant. On to more from Lincoln. Thiel next asks Lincoln if he will elaborate on what mistakes he believes were made that led to this point. This seems to me a reasonable request, given that I think as "shareholders" in this public-private joint venture we have a right to assess whether the team even recognizes its mistakes; in the rhetoric of the day, I believe that recognizing one's mistakes is a prerequisite to fixing them. Anyway, after petulantly refusing to give Thiel "a litany of my mistakes" and seeking to leave us all assured that he won't forget the mistakes and will learn from them, he offers this:

". . . [S]o many baseball decisions that are wrong are judgments . . . [that are] easy to identify . . . with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. . . . In baseball, there are no guarantees. With hindsight, it's easy to say you shouldn't have done this or that. . . . We came in with high expectations. There was nothing in spring training to suggest we would suffer these significant and unexpected declines in performance that we saw from too many of our best players -- not only from those we brought in, but from those here . . ..

[But] when we make a player
move that doesn't work, we need to ask ourselves how we did that. It wasn't obviously a mistake at the time we made it. But did our people do everything they could that that decision was the right one?

More excuse-making. Where to start?

Well, first, the idea that nobody suggested this could happen is not true. At Monday's press conference, Bill Bavasi was quoted as saying "Did [Melvin] have enough to win? No. We knew (in spring training) that we had some weaknesses, some holes. We knew [that] to be competitive, we'd have to get fortunate." See if you can reconcile that with Lincoln's comments; I can't. Second, and probably more importantly, how are we supposed to be assured by someone who keeps saying "we couldn't have known this was coming"? If that's true, how will they prevent it from happening again? In light of the excuses, how can we view the Mariners' collective navel examination as anything but simply for show?

I've written about this before, but it is difficult to make the case that decline is unforeseeable when you've seen one of the league's oldest teams fade in each of the past two seasons, and you spend the entire offseason before the third replacing nearly every outgoing player with even older players. While talent evaluation -- or lack thereof -- was certainly a big part of this, this consistent failure to recognize the risks of something as basic as the aging process is very disturbing, and gives this fan exactly zero confidence that this management group will not repeat its mistakes.
"Q: There is no consensus among [the ownership group] to change the club's approach?

"A: The most important thing we can do is maintain a very high major league payroll, at least in the top ten. If we can do that, that's the most significant contribution the ownership group can make to the Mariners [and t]hat's precisely what we intend to do in 2005, even though in doing so we will budget for a loss."
Again, it is hard to know where to start.

First, while I appreciate the significant monetary commitment this ownership group has made and will make, this is a collossal cop-out. Putting up the money is not all the ownership group can do, and at this stage I'm not even sure it is the most significant thing. It would be at least as significant if ownership exerted its influence to change obviously flawed decision-making processes, to encourage more openess to new and creative ways of assessing and solving the club's problems, and replacing employees in baseball operations who are resistant to that.

Second, especially in light of the club's seeming unwillingness to address the first point, even this financial commitment is probably not enough. Accoriding to USA Today, the Mariners were not in the top ten in payroll in 2004. They were eleventh, despite being in the top two or so in revenues and profit. Six of the eight playoff teams this year were ahead of the Mariners, and of the two who weren't, only the Minnesota Twins significantly trailed the Mariners in payroll. Unless you are willing to re-assess the club's approach (ala the A's), if you are to seriously compete you are resigned to playing a game of escalating payrolls that this club has historically refused to play. Unless you get to the top five or so, and get lucky, you will fail with this approach.

Third, it bothers me that the Mariners would expect me to think of the prospect of losing a couple million dollars as a huge sacrifice. Just because they look at things year-to-year doesn't mean I have to. This team has made huge amounts of profits at least in every year since Safeco Field opened. Sinking a bit of that profit back into the on-field product to stem the possibility of even greater losses if they do not is not sacrifice, it is just good business. Especially considering that if they had spent much less at mid-season in either of the last two seasons and made a run at a championship instead of a second-half fade they wouldn't be in position to need an expensive, big splash to win back its credibility with fans and players, I don't feel sorry for them. Get it done, already.

Moving on . . .
"Quite frankly, I'm shocked that anyone would think we're arrogant."
Ha! Hahahahahahah!! Oh, man, sorry. It's just that I'm amused that you're shocked that anyone would find this club arrogant, Howard. This reeks of disrespect for fans, their intelligence and desire to know whether the club is capable of fixing its problems before again committing their dollars to this club, and is exactly the kind of failure to understand the public-private partnership I was talking about before, that gives fans the right to ask questions about why the club thinks it failed and what it expects to do to fix it. We're "stakeholders," remember? Want to know why we think you're arrogant, Howard? Take a look at your answer to Thiel's question about whether, in light of Melvin's firing and the poor performance of last year's acquisitions, there is something the club will do to improve upon their practice of "the art of baseball judgments" this time around. ["Yes, but I'm not going to get into that. It would be inappropriate to get into the specifics."] Father knows best!

Next, in response to a question about public and private expressions of doubt about the Mariners commitment to winning by players around the league . . .
"There's been a lot of misperceptions built up around the Mariners. We could spend the rest of the day trying to disabuse the media of those."
And you should, Howard. Players largely get their information about the clubs intentions from the media. Fans certainly do. Neither group trusts your commitment. Perception is reality. You must do what is necessary to change that perception -- which after all, whether reality or "misperception," is the result of your deeds, actions, and inaction. If we misunderstand your intentions, perhaps you and your organization need to do a better job conveying your intentions?

". . . This idea that we're not committed is simply not true. Our payroll is higher than most other teams."
Except for those in the playoffs, or as judged in relation to profits.

If this interview was supposed to make me feel better as a fan, it didn't. Sure, there are some nice nods to the need to re-evaluate where mistakes were made, but no indication that they will reassess how they got to this point enough to provide any assurance they will do enough differently to avoid making the same mistakes again. Lincoln makes clear that Bavasi will be allowed wide leeway to build the front office staff, coaching staff, and roster as he sees fit . . . which seems designed more to protect Howard Lincoln and set up Bavasi and his hires as the next Fall Guys than a vote of confidence. That seems fairly transparent to me, and will make it harder for Bavasi to hire a good manager and attract better free agents, but that's another post.

Don't hold your breath for the return of 2001, folks.

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